Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 142,392
2 Rhode Island 141,195
3 South Dakota 139,300
4 Utah 124,897
5 Tennessee 122,717
6 Arizona 119,365
7 Iowa 116,547
8 Nebraska 114,471
9 Wisconsin 114,450
10 Oklahoma 113,634
11 South Carolina 113,526
12 New Jersey 113,473
13 Arkansas 111,839
14 Delaware 109,007
15 Indiana 108,885
16 Alabama 108,294
17 Kansas 107,313
18 Illinois 107,223
19 New York 106,438
20 Florida 105,681
21 Idaho 105,679
22 Mississippi 105,225
23 Minnesota 104,236
24 Nevada 103,235
25 Montana 102,940
26 Georgia 102,232
27 Wyoming 101,290
28 Kentucky 101,184
29 Massachusetts 101,182
30 Texas 100,525
31 Louisiana 99,331
32 Missouri 98,767
33 Michigan 96,234
34 Connecticut 96,126
35 California 95,111
36 New Mexico 95,064
37 North Carolina 94,203
38 Alaska 93,396
39 Ohio 92,702
40 Pennsylvania 92,014
41 Colorado 91,379
42 West Virginia 87,272
43 Virginia 78,103
44 Maryland 74,981
45 New Hampshire 71,062
46 District of Columbia 68,267
47 Washington 54,622
48 Puerto Rico 52,881
49 Maine 47,607
50 Oregon 45,380
51 Vermont 37,638
52 Hawaii 23,740

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Colorado 259
2 Minnesota 208
3 Maine 203
4 West Virginia 198
5 Delaware 197
6 Michigan 196
7 Oregon 177
8 Florida 176
9 Illinois 172
10 Pennsylvania 158
11 Indiana 154
12 Puerto Rico 148
13 New York 135
14 South Carolina 130
15 Washington 128
16 Massachusetts 127
17 New Hampshire 120
18 North Dakota 115
19 Maryland 102
20 Arizona 101
21 Utah 101
22 Vermont 101
23 Ohio 99
24 Montana 98
25 Wisconsin 97
26 Kentucky 90
27 Georgia 89
28 Virginia 88
29 Nebraska 86
30 Iowa 81
31 Missouri 74
32 New Jersey 73
33 Hawaii 71
34 North Carolina 71
35 Alabama 66
36 Texas 65
37 Arkansas 62
38 Rhode Island 60
39 Wyoming 55
40 Nevada 53
41 Alaska 52
42 Kansas 49
43 District of Columbia 47
44 New Mexico 44
45 Tennessee 42
46 Connecticut 40
47 Louisiana 40
48 California 39
49 Idaho 35
50 South Dakota 28
51 Mississippi 26
52 Oklahoma 19

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,904
2 New York 2,681
3 Massachusetts 2,565
4 Rhode Island 2,536
5 Mississippi 2,428
6 Arizona 2,391
7 Connecticut 2,282
8 Louisiana 2,244
9 Alabama 2,238
10 South Dakota 2,238
11 Pennsylvania 2,076
12 North Dakota 2,006
13 Indiana 1,993
14 New Mexico 1,955
15 Illinois 1,939
16 Michigan 1,938
17 Arkansas 1,909
18 Iowa 1,896
19 South Carolina 1,862
20 Georgia 1,858
21 Nevada 1,784
22 Tennessee 1,780
23 Texas 1,752
24 Kansas 1,736
25 Oklahoma 1,726
26 Delaware 1,680
27 Florida 1,663
28 Ohio 1,662
29 California 1,576
30 District of Columbia 1,572
31 West Virginia 1,521
32 Missouri 1,520
33 Kentucky 1,497
34 Montana 1,489
35 Maryland 1,464
36 Wisconsin 1,314
37 Minnesota 1,298
38 Virginia 1,276
39 Nebraska 1,228
40 Wyoming 1,226
41 North Carolina 1,220
42 Idaho 1,154
43 Colorado 1,127
44 New Hampshire 967
45 Puerto Rico 742
46 Washington 736
47 Utah 693
48 Oregon 602
49 Maine 591
50 Alaska 453
51 Vermont 399
52 Hawaii 342

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 5
2 Montana 3
3 Alabama 2
4 Delaware 2
5 Florida 2
6 Georgia 2
7 Illinois 2
8 New Jersey 2
9 New York 2
10 Ohio 2
11 Pennsylvania 2
12 Puerto Rico 2
13 South Carolina 2
14 West Virginia 2
15 Wisconsin 2
16 Arizona 1
17 California 1
18 Idaho 1
19 Indiana 1
20 Kansas 1
21 Kentucky 1
22 Maryland 1
23 Minnesota 1
24 New Mexico 1
25 North Carolina 1
26 South Dakota 1
27 Texas 1
28 Virginia 1
29 Alaska 0
30 Arkansas 0
31 Colorado 0
32 Connecticut 0
33 District of Columbia 0
34 Hawaii 0
35 Iowa 0
36 Louisiana 0
37 Maine 0
38 Massachusetts 0
39 Mississippi 0
40 Missouri 0
41 Nebraska 0
42 Nevada 0
43 New Hampshire 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Rhode Island 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Washington 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 367,287 1 99
Crowley Colorado 360,997 2 99
Bent Colorado 274,162 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 249,830 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,777 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,920 187 94
Richland South Carolina 111,887 984 68
York South Carolina 110,830 1022 67
Orange California 85,255 2208 29
Pierce Washington 56,321 2865 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,193 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,577 1820 42
York South Carolina 1,349 2087 33
Richland South Carolina 1,345 2092 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,344 2093 33
Pierce Washington 724 2746 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons